No Way Out of Lebanon’s Deadlock

You have to hand it to Lebanon’s veteran parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri. In a country politically paralyzed for months as bickering politicians fail to elect a new president, and burdened by a lifeless economy and the ever-present specter of sectarian and factional violence, Berri last week arranged for a circular wooden table and 14 chairs to be placed on the second floor of the parliament building in central Beirut. He wasn’t just moving the furniture around; he was mounting an optimistic bid to bring the nation’s feuding leaders together for a fence-mending dialogue.
Related Articles
Carter in the Mideast: The Last Idealist

The former President, on a freelance peace mission, gets a concession from Hamas. But he’s up against layers of cynicism
Lebanon: Once More to the Brink

Lebanese deputy and leader of the March 14 Block. Saad Hariri (C), is surrounded…
Lebanon: In Search of a President

Lebanese parliament members sit near pictures of assassinated deputies as the pa…
Hizballah’s Christian Soldiers?

Poster of Christian Maronite leader General Michel Aoun (L), and leader of Hezbollah sheikh Hassan N…
The Trouble with Syria

Rafiq Hariri was a bold, self-made billionaire but a prudent politician. Syrian troops occupied his …

The chance that round-table talks will lead to a breakthrough appears remote, however. Government supporters have already dismissed the proposal, and most Lebanese have resigned themselves to a prolonged political stalemate. Many glumly predict that the United States will have a new president before Lebanon does. And there may be more to that comment than simply a January benchmark: Lebanon’s political battle has become a proxy war for foreign powers locked into a struggle to shape the Middle East — the U.S., Saudi Arabia and France support the government; Iran and Syria back the opposition led by Hizballah .

“Without the regional balances clearing a little bit, the major external players in Lebanon will not facilitate a breakthrough,” says Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Center. “Unfortunately, the domestic players in Lebanon are under too much external influence to make a deal among themselves.”

Many of the region’s traumas and tragedies reverberate in Lebanon’s politics — the Arab-Israeli conflict, the plight of Palestinian refugees, al-Qaeda-inspired militancy, Syria’s sour relations with leading Arab states and the West, the spread of Iran’s influence, and the Sunni-Shi’ite tensions stoked by events in Iraq. That’s quite a plateful for a country two-thirds the size of Connecticut and with a population of 4 million, many of whom are seeking to emigrate to more stable environments. Although there are no official statistics available (in a country whose ethnic and sectarian balances are so politically charged that a population census hasn’t been taken since 1932), one estimate last year claimed that a quarter of the population had left in the year following the summer 2006 war between Israel and Hizballah.

Still, Lebanon’s lawmakers continue to go through the motions. On Tuesday, they gathered in parliament for their 18th scheduled attempt to elect a new head of state since President Emile Lahoud left office last November. Berri, one of Lebanon’s wiliest politicians, surprised lawmakers with his decision to hold the session instead of postponing it as he has done in the past. Politicians from the anti-Syrian March 14 coalition that dominates the government hurried to parliament, along with opposition counterparts, to see if quorum would be reached to hold a vote.

The parties all know the outcome of the vote, of course. It was agreed months ago that the commander of Lebanon’s army, General Michel Suleiman, will be the next president. Suleiman is a consensus candidate, acceptable to the March 14 coalition and the opposition, and would hold the balance of power in a government of national unity to be formed after he is elected. But the Hizballah-led opposition refuses to allow Suleiman to be voted into office until it is guaranteed a veto-wielding one-third share of the next government. While the opposition in all likelihood represents even more than a third of the population, a one-third share of the government would allow the Hizballah-led opposition to block decisions it opposes, such as moves to dismantle the movement’s military wing. So, the March 14 bloc rejects the opposition demand, suspecting that it will be used to further Syrian and Iranian interests in Lebanon at the expense of its own U.S. and Saudi backers.

There was no surprise, then, when Berri postponed Tuesday’s parliamentary vote — not enough legislators had shown up to create a quorum. Instead of setting a date for a new session, he repeated his call for dialogue among the top leaders. “Let us undertake dialogue instead of trying to one-up each other, because doing this has become dangerous,” he told reporters. Indeed, fears of violent clashes have resurged since the weekend when two members of the government-allied Phalange party were gunned down at a checkpoint in the Christian town of Zahle in the Bekaa Valley. The alleged assailants were supporters of a local opposition MP. Police are hunting the gunmen amid calls for revenge and accusations that the opposition is protecting the killers.

In another unwelcome sign of potential instability, al-Qaeda deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has promised that Lebanon will play a “pivotal role” in the battle against the “Crusaders and Jews”.

“Lebanon is a Muslim frontline fort,” he said in an audiotape released Tuesday. “I call upon the jihadist generation in Lebanon to prepare to reach Palestine and to banish the invading crusader forces which are claimed to be peacekeeping forces in Lebanon,” he added, referring to the United Nations troops deployed in south Lebanon. Given that grim forecast on top of the country’s other woes, small wonder that the ambition of so many Lebanese simply is to leave the country.

Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Postpones Election for 18th Time

The eighteenth consecutive session of
Lebanon’s parliament to elect a new president was postponed, yet again,
today, by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, amid a political vacuum that
has persisted since pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud’s term ended on
November 24. Edward Yeranian reports from Beirut.

Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri gestures during a press conference after he postponed the session to elect a new Lebanese President, Beirut, 22 Apr 2008

The
decision by pro-Syrian Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to postpone
Tuesday’s electoral session of parliament came as a surprise to no one,
and most political leaders appeared resigned to the outcome.

Ordinary citizens appeared cynical or even angry about the decision
to postpone the vote, especially since the ongoing political vacuum has
left Lebanon’s economy in shambles.

Berri announced his decision to postpone by suggesting that
President Bush has promised a “hot summer” for the Middle East, and
that the only way to avoid chaos in Lebanon is for, in his words, “a
national dialogue between all Lebanese factions.”

He also insisted that neither the pro-Western government, nor the
opposition pro-Syrian Hezbollah should expect any solution to Lebanon’s
crisis imposed from the outside.

“No one,” he says, “should expect that a solution will be imposed
from the East or from the West that will harm the status quo inside
Lebanon, or would damage the system of power sharing that began with
the Taef peace agreement (which ended Lebanon’s civil war),” Berri said.

Member of Parliament Mustapha Allouche, representing the
pro-government March 14 coalition, questioned why Berri was keeping
parliament paralyzed.

“Berri is a member of the opposition,” Allouche said. “Who is he to
set conditions for a dialogue… and why do we need a dialogue? Why
don’t we just hold the vote?”

Arab diplomats are also holding a meeting in Kuwait, Tuesay,
alongside a planned discussion on Iraq, to discuss what to do in
Lebanon.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner met his Syrian counterpart
Walid Muallem, in Kuwait, as well, to discuss how to resolve the
Lebanese political crisis.

Both Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and Saudi King Abdallah have
pointed the finger at Syria, accusing it of responsibility in blocking
a presidential election.

Paul Salem, Director of the Carnegie Center for Peace in the Middle
East thinks that Lebanon’s electoral paralysis reflects a wider
regional conflict between pro-American forces and a Syro-Iranian axis:

“As an event in and of itself I think it was only of theatrical
importance….because the log-jam is really related to the wider national
and regional….I want to say “showdown” exactly, but kind of…..two big
camps facing off….and waiting for somebody to make a move….or waiting
for something to change,” Salem said.

He also believes that Lebanon will not have a president, this year,
and that things may deteriorate if either Hezbollah decides to attack
Israel in retaliation for the killing of military commander Imad
Mugniyah, or if the UN tribunal determining responsibility in the 2005
killing of former Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri, issues any
accusations.

Only the insane can play Lebanon’s political game

By Alistair Lyon
Beirut - Empty seats
are proliferating in Beirut’s political theater of the absurd, symptoms
of a deep malaise that has crippled Lebanese government institutions,
damaged the economy and fuelled fears of renewed civil war.

The president’s chair has been vacant since November. There is no sign the palace in Baabda will get a new occupant soon.

Lebanon’s
parliament, whose own benches have been deserted since October 2006,
failed for the 18th time on Tuesday to meet formally to elect a
president — although rival factions agreed months ago that the army
chief should be the next head of state.

Last week Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri installed a table with 14
empty chairs in the assembly building to accommodate a “national
dialogue” he argues is the best way out of the crisis.

“He is willing to hold a marathon dialogue after which everyone
moves straight from the room to the general assembly to elect (a
president),” Berri’s media adviser Ali Hamdan said.

However, aware that anti-Syrian factions dominating the government
have rejected his proposal, Berri has yet to issue invitations to
politicians to fill those neatly arranged seats.

Outside
the building are yet more desolate chairs in the once-crowded bars,
cafes and restaurants of downtown Beirut. Many are shuttered. Those
that have hung on rarely have more than a few customers to reward their
fortitude.

“Downtown we are making only 7 percent of our past revenue,” Michel
Ferneini, who runs Medi Resto, an Italian restaurant and food business
with outlets in the area, said.

“I’m not ashamed to say it — instead the politicians who brought
Lebanon to this blind alley should be ashamed of such results,” he
added. “I’m sure one day we will throw them in the garbage of history.
Our losses are losses for all Lebanon.”

Beirut’s center, destroyed in the 1975-90 civil war and then
lavishly rebuilt, was a magnet for tourists until war broke out between
Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah guerrillas in July 2006.

Hopes of luring visitors back and reviving business faded when
Hezbollah and its allies began camping out in the heart of the capital
in December 2006 to press demands for veto power in a government
dominated by the anti-Syrian majority.

Tattered Tents

As
the months went by, the protest ran out of steam and the tents are now
tattered and largely unoccupied, but remain as a symbol that the
opposition cannot be ignored.

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s Western-backed cabinet has defied the
pressure, hunkering down in the Grand Serail, an elegant Ottoman-era
government edifice separated by troops and barbed wire from the
opposition tents in an adjacent square.

The cabinet has vacant seats too. Seven of the 24 are empty due to
the resignations of six opposition ministers and the assassination of
Pierre Gemayel, an anti-Syrian politician.

There is no end in sight to Lebanon’s crisis, whose local
protagonists are linked to those in a broader regional conflict pitting
the United States and its allies against Iran and Syria.

The tension has occasionally flared into violence, so far contained
by factional leaders. But some Lebanese worry that the lessons of the
civil war have been lost to collective amnesia.

Among
them is Nada Sehnaoui, who has installed 600 empty toilets on a vacant
downtown lot to make her point — from afar the startling white rows
resemble a military cemetery.

“Every now and then you hear of a group rearming or militias
re-forming. This scares the hell out of me,” she said, standing among
the lavatories erected for a two-week show to mark the April 13
anniversary of the start of the civil war.

Her idea is to remind Lebanese of the madness and futility of that
conflict, when civilians often sheltered in their bathrooms while
militias indulged in cross-town artillery duels.

“It was nightmarish,” said the flame-haired artist. “I was 15 when
the war started and I remember hiding in the toilets, first as a
teenager and later as a mother with a baby.”

The Lebanese, Sehnaoui argued, have never come to terms with the
civil war. Instead they have swept it under the carpet, amnestying
militia leaders and avoiding any kind of South Africa-style truth and
reconciliation process.

She said specters from the past could not be simply wished away,
noting that in Lebanese school text books, history stops in 1975. “You
have to face it, look at it in the eyes.”

What would she say to the politicians at loggerheads over how to share power in a disintegrating country?

“They can come and meet here, on the toilet seats.”

Source: Reuters

Friends of Lebanon’ call for immediate elections

Kuwait - The political crisis in Lebanon
was discussed on the sidelines of a conference on Iraq on Tuesday,
while the Lebanese parliament failed to elect a president for the
eighteenth consecutive try.

French
Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and his Syrian counterpart Walid
Muallem held talks in Kuwait on Tuesday that focused on the crisis in
Lebanon. The meeting was the first since Paris suspended high-level
contacts with Damascus in December.

“We hope relations between France and Syria would renew over
Lebanon,” Kouchner said after the meeting on the sidelines of a
conference on Iraq.

The talks covered “the situation in Lebanon,” Kouchner said.

Statement of “Friends of Lebanon”

We, the Foreign Ministers and Representatives of Egypt, France,
Germany, Italy, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States together with the
Secretary General of the Arab League, the Secretary General of the
Council of the European Union and the Secretary General of the United
Nations, joined a ministerial representative of the government of
Lebanon today to exchange views on how best to support the sovereignty,
territorial integrity, unity, and political independence of a secure,
democratic, and economically prosperous Lebanon characterized by
confessional harmony and loyalty among its citizens. A stable Lebanon
will give a positive impetus on peace and international security in the
wider region and beyond.

We remain strongly committed to supporting the legitimate Lebanese
government and the democratic institutions of the country as they work
to achieve this shared vision for Lebanon.

We are deeply dismayed at the ongoing political stalemate. We call
for the immediate election of the consensual candidate General Sleiman
as president without prior conditions, the establishment of a national
unity government, and the holding of general elections in conformity
with an electoral law agreed by all parties, in accordance with the
Arab League plan. We call for inter-Lebanese political dialogue,
specifically through Lebanese constitutional institutions.

Lebanese institutions, like the presidency, cabinet, parliament,
armed forces, and security services, provide the backbone for a
sovereign, secure, and prosperous state. We reiterate our full support
for the Lebanese government in its efforts to preserve the stability of
the country and to provide prosperity for the Lebanese people - from
all confessions and all regions of the country.

We call on all parties inside and outside Lebanon to respect
Lebanon’s independence and sovereignty. Three years after Syria’s
military withdrawal from Lebanon, time has come for Syria and Lebanon
to redefine and normalize ties between these two historically close
neighbors in mutual respect for their sovereignty, territorial
integrity, and political independence. In this context, the
establishment of full diplomatic relations between Lebanon and Syria,
the delineation of their shared border, and a commitment not to permit
the use of their respective territories to destabilize the other would
constitute significant steps to secure peace and stability in the
region.

We welcome the Arab League’s commitment to address Lebanese-Syrian
relations as part of the Arab League’s initiative. In this context, we
have taken note of Prime Minister Siniora’s call to address and resolve
these issues. We hope that all parties will work towards that goal.

Mindful of Prime Minister Siniora’s Seven Points of July 2006, we
reaffirm the importance of full implementation of the Taef agreement,
all UN Security Council resolutions pertaining to Lebanon, including
resolutions 1559, 1680, 1701, and 1757, as well as the implementation
of the Arab initiative.

Sources: Ya Libnan, France Diplomatie, Naharnet

Murder victims buried in Zahle

Lebanon’s ruling coalition on Tuesday
buried two slain members of the Phalange Party in the eastern town of
Zahle amidst tight security measures and a pledge by ex-President Amin
Gemayel that the crime would not go unpunished.

“We
know who committed the Zahle crime … and it would not go unpunished,”
Gemayel told mourners at the provincial capital of east Lebanon’s Bekaa
valley.

Salim Assi and Nasri Marouni were gunned down by an assailant
identified as Joseph Zouki after celebrating the inauguration of a
Phalange Party office in Zahle.

Gemayel,
who lost his son industry minister and anti-Syrian MP Pierre in an
assassination attempt in November 2006, embraced the daughter of the
one of the victims as tears rolled down his cheeks.

Portraits of the two victims were hung all over Zahle, which had
observed a national mourning on Monday and where stores were closed for
the funeral.

Zouki
was described as a supporter of Christian opposition Zahle MP Elie
Skaff (pictured right) who is close to the Christian opposition leader
Michel Aoun.

Security forces are searching for Zouki and his brother, Toomi, who is thought to have also taken part in the attack.

Meanwhile, police launched a massive manhunt for the two suspected killers throughout the Bekaa and mount Lebanon.

Source: Naharnet