Analysis – Lebanon elections are essential but impossible

By: Marianna Belenkaya *
Beirut – On Tuesday, September 25, the process of electing a president is due to start in Lebanon.

If it were any other country, it would be possible to talk about
elections or at least their first round, but in Lebanon this is
essentially a process, the final result of which is unknown. Be that as
it may, if the Lebanese do not get a new president, the country is not
likely to get out of a political crisis – for mote than a year now the
operation of its parliament and government has been virtually paralyzed
by the discord between the opposition and parliamentary majority.

The term of the current President Emile Lahoud expires on November
24. In line with the Constitution, parliament has two months to elect
his successor. Under the plan, the procedure will begin on September
25. To be elected to the position of the head of state, the nominee
(who is certain to be a Maronite) has to receive two thirds of the
votes in parliament in the first round or a simple majority later on.
But for the time being, it doesn’t even make sense for the deputies to
discuss the candidacy of the future president or the new date for the
start of the election procedures. The party leaders should first come
to terms with each other.

There is no unanimity on the presidential nominee between the
parliamentary majority represented by the March 14 Movement, the
opposition (the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal) and the Christian Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM). The domestic situation is so tense that the
voting without preliminary agreement on the nominee may plunge the
country into a civil war, as the opposition leaders have already warned.

The opposition’s candidate to the presidential position is FPM
leader, General Michel Aoun. The March 14 Movement is still choosing
between three candidates. The question is which of them will suit the
opposition and how to persuade Aoun to give up his nomination. The
parliamentary majority is not likely to accept him because of his
surprise alliance with Hezbollah, which they associate with Syria.

The presidential nominee in Lebanon should be a compromise figure
not only for the Lebanese but also for Damascus and Tehran on the one
hand, and Washington and Paris on the other. Although all outside
forces are feigning the impression that the presidential elections are
a home affair of the Lebanese, this is far from reality.

It is no accident that after the session of the Quartet
(international go-betweens in the Mid-Eastern settlement – Russia, the
United States, the European Union and the United Nations), Russian
Acting Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged the world community to stay
out of the Lebanese affairs.

“If nobody intervenes in Lebanon, the Lebanese will manage to come to terms and get out of the current crisis,” he said.

Ten days before this statement, his deputy Alexander Saltanov made
this statement after the talks in Beirut: “Regrettably, there is still
a lot of mistrust among the Lebanese. This is one of the reasons why
they haven’t yet started searching for consensus.”

This is quite an open statement for the usually reserved diplomat.

Saltanov added: “The solutions which are being imposed on Lebanon by different sides do not meet its national interests.”

Moscow believes that domestic dialogue is the only road which will help the Lebanese get out of the predicament.

But there is little hope that the Lebanese will be left in peace. It
is enough to mention last week’s act of terror in Beirut, which killed
deputy Antoine Ghanem, a spokesman for the parliamentary majority and
the Lebanese Maronite community.

The Lebanese media wrote that he tried to establish contacts inside
the Maronite community, which is split by party affiliation. It doesn’t
matter much what the reason was, because the terrorists have reached
their goal – to bring the tense situation to the boiling point. All
Lebanese policymakers are living in a kind of a besieged fortress -
eight assassinations in two and a half years.

This gloomy picture is supplemented by periodic clashes between the
supporters of the opposition and the parliamentary majority, a tent
camp of the opposition in the city’s center and barbed wire around
government buildings. The country is obviously on the brinkmanship of a
civil war.

The meeting of the party leaders will be a big achievement. For
almost a year now they have been exchanging replicas and accusations
through the press and refusing to engage in direct talks. An optimistic
view is only based on statements by both sides about their readiness to
come to terms. Up until now, they have been unable to do this, and
there is little time left – two months to the “point of no return.” The
countdown has started.

Picture: The big question in Lebanon is : Who will be the next
president and will outgoing president Emile Lahoud ( Right , hands only
shown) be able to decorate the new president as the tradition dictates ?

*Marianna Belenkaya is a commentator for the Russia Today TV Channel in Arabic.

Sources: RIA Novosti